As it stands, the San Diego Padres continue to lead the rest of the junior circuit by at least 2 games. Although they lost their most recent series to the San Francisco Giants 2-1, the Giants still sit 2.5 games back. Here’s how the field looks, with anywhere from 18-20 games left to play depending on the team:
Padres —
Marlins 2.0
PHILLIES 2.5
Giants 2.5
Reds 3.5
Astros 4.5
Braves 5.5
Now, this is nowhere the complete picture. A very important part of guessing the eventual Wildcard winner involves seeing how they are currently playing. For much of July and August the Cincinnati Reds led the Wildcard standings by several games, but have since faded due to bad pitching, porous defense, and by relying far too much on an aged Ken Griffey Jr (319 OBP and declining). So let’s take a snapshot of how the teams in the Wildcard are playing:
Padres 7-3
Giants 7-3
Marlins 7-3
Astros 5-5
Braves 5-5
PHILLIES 5-5
Reds 4-6
I had assumed a few weeks ago that the NL West would be beating each other up by now. At the time the Giants, Padres, Dbacks, and even the Rockies were up in the standings. Since then the Dbacks and Rockies have dropped like rocks, losing several games to the Pads and Giants. The Marlins offense has turned it on, the Padres and Giants have won on their pitching and the Phils have been stagnant because of losing close games. They simply aren’t good enough to consistently blow out teams or combine a good offensive day with a good pitching performance. They’re a 500 team, no better and no worse.
As for future games, tonight the Padres start a crucial 7 game road trip against the Reds and NL West leading Dodgers (2 games ahead of the Friars). If they come out of this with a winning record, it could spell doom for the rest of the Wildcard hopefuls. Still, they have 13 total road games to play, and that can hurt a team’s consistency.
The Marlins finish their series against the Mets over the next two days and will likely win it with the Mets on cruise control. They then embark on a 10 game road trip, and this is also a huge test for them. Road trips can be deathknells for teams hoping to sneak into the playoffs and, with the lack of talent in the NL, whoever wins the Wildcard will do it by the definition of sneaking. Anyway, the Marlins look to be turning the corner at just the right time, with their hitting and pitching coming together. Don’t be fooled by the ages or lack of ‘experience’, these guys simply hit and pitch. What could get them is their iffy bullpen, but almost every team has an iffy bullpen that is around 500.
The Giants have a 3 game spot with the Rockies at home where they can gain a few victories before they themselves go off on a 10 game road trip. I don’t see how they can clinch the playoffs with their lack of ability to win on the road (9 games under). Perhaps they tire on the road, who really knows but them.
Your Philadelphia Phillies (and mine), seem to have the edge in home/away games, with 11 at home. Their offense is decent, and they’ve won on it, but their pitching has consistently held them back this year. Getting a guy that relies on his defense as much as Jamie Moyer and also gives up homers probbaly didn’t help it too much. Ryan Howard is crushing it, but it may not be enough. Still, he and Albert Pujols(and maybe Miguel Cabrera) are battling it out for the MVP in my book.
As for the hanger-ons like the Braves and Astros, they both play several Wildcard hopefuls(Marlins, Phils, and each other), and then also some division winners and bottom-feeders. Only one of them can go on a run, and I would say that neither will. The Braves don’t have enough pitching, their #1 hitter(Chipper Jones) is ailing, and they have a rather shallow roster. The Astros have some good pitching (Clemens, Oswalt, Wheeler in relief) but they don’t have much beyond that that’s developed and their hitting is horrible beyond the stellar Lance Berkman and LF Luke Scott. They just don’t have it.
So what’s this all mean? It looks to me like the Padres should win this thing. They have an edge on everyone with their pitching, their current place in the standings, and the simple fact that they have one of the only good bullpens (Hoffman, Linebrink, Meredith and more) in this race. They are tailor made to win in one-run games, even if they can’t blow anyone out. Usually blowouts are the mark of a good team, but if you can’t load up on offense, load up on pitching. The Padres will likely win the NL Wildcard, if they don’t win the NL West division. The Dodgers exactly playing terrific baseball of late, and their 10 game road trip coming up soon may knock them down into the Wildcard race. If that happens, it could be a wide-open field again.
Back before the season started, and when I was just beginning to blog, I suggested the Phillies 2006 theme song be “Only in Dreams” by my favorite band Weezer. Well, looks like I was dead-on in my analysis of their playoff hopes…only in dreams my friends…only in dreams. Such is the sad, sad tale of being a Phillies fan.
How’d you get all these commenters in a couple months???
Has anyone noticed that for years the bullpen was a strength of this team and that now when we need them – nothing. It’ll be interesting to see what’s “improved” next year.
Oh and another thing, just how does a player leave 9 men on base in one game? (yes you Pat the bat).
I know it’s the cool thing to bash Burrell, but hte guy is playing hurt(foot)and can’t drive the ball as a result. He also still sees a ton of pitches, which helps an offense wear down a pitcher. I personally see no problem with strikeouts.
As for the pen, most every bullpen has the worst pitchers in their bullpen because you want your worst players affecting you the most. Bullpens are fairly overrated if youcan hit and have 4 good pitchers or so, because they pitch in so few innings(1/3 of hte game at most, usually). So, I would expect an average team like the Phils to have a below-average bullpen.
This is also a reason why you don’t load the bullpen up with big contracts and old farts. They break down and you tie your money into a position that’s fairly overrated. You bring up young guys and AAAA guys to fill it and hope they hit fire, and you sign guys to 1 year deals that can eat up some innings in the pen for you. That’s it.