Let me start by simply listing the statistics of the top 10 American League players in a few categories, without comment. Except for one comment…I will not be showing homers, hits, walks, etc. I will be going beyond that a bit to stats like VORP (value over replacement player), OPS and EQA(equivalent average, .260 is average). They take several things into account. I’ve done this before, but if you need a primer just do a google search for christs sake. I will say that these 3 days are pretty good ways to figure out who is good and who is not:
OPS
1. DH Travis Hafner 1.097
2. LF Manny Ramirez 1.058
3. DH David Ortiz 1.049
4. DH Jim Thome 1.014
5. RF Jermaine Dye 1.006
6. 1B/DH Jason Giambi .971
7. C Joe Mauer .936
8.1B Justin Mourneau .934
9. RF Vladimir Guerrero 934
10. 1B Paul Konerko .932
VORP
1. SS Derek Jeter 81.5
2. DH Travis Hafner 79.7
3. DH David Ortiz 76.8
4. CF Grady Sizemore 69.1
5. C Joe Mauer 66.9
6. SS Carlos Guillen 66.3
7. LF Manny Ramirez 66.1
8. SS Miguel Tejada 65.9
9. RF Jermaine Dye 64.6
10. RF Vladimir Guerrero 63.9
13. 1B Justin Mourneau 51
EQA
1. DH Travis Hafner .355
2. LF Manny Ramirez .342
3. DH David Ortiz .334
4. DH Jim Thome .328
5. DH Jason Giambi .326
6. C Joe Mauer .321
7. RF Jermaine Dye .320
8. SS Derek Jeter .316
9. RF Vladimir Guerrero .314
10. 3B Alex Rodriguez .311
13. 1B Justin Mourneau .308
Notice a pattern? Even adjusting a bit for games played (Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez all missed multiple games) and for importance of defensive position, Justin Mourneau is a borderline top 10 player, let alone the freaking AL MVP. His own teammate Joe Mauer is probably the guy that got stiffed the most, then Derek Jeter. And all of this ignores that Johan Santana was probably the most valuable guy this past season, head and shoulders above any other pitcher in either league.
So why was Mourneau picked, when he is so obviously not a top 5 player, and erhaps not top 10? Well, he was a slugger on a playoff team with some nice looking numbers in batting average, homers, RBI (321-34-130). Thing is, Derek Jeter’s team made the playoffs. Joe Mauer and Johan Santana were on the same team! And does making the playoffs really matter, especially considering that the NL MVP’s team didn’t? That doesn’t lessen the ‘value’ of a player; rather, it highlights how poor the rest of his team played. Travis Hafner was by far the guy you wanted up there every at bat, but he got hurt at the end of the year. If he didn’t, he could have been entirely screwed over. The only thing that can be concluded is that the baseball writers who voted for Justin Mourneau are simply morons who actually didn’t do any research at all for their votes.
There’s simply no reason that Justin Mourneau should be the MVP, and no reason to explain it, other than simple random chance and luck. Baseball writers obviously spend a long time checking out stats for their picks, as this took me all of 10 minutes to check to make sure my stats were correct. They are truly showing how seriously they take their jobs, as a guy who doesn’t get paid does more research on the topic and they do. Kudos to the baseball writers for once again showing their complete incompetence! Thumbs up yay!
Sportszilla talks about this very topic too! MV PLEASE
I understand everything you’re saying… and maybe you’re right, however…
MVP isn’t about just numbers. If it were, they’d just build a formula and give it to the guy.
MVP is also about impact… and more importantly, impact at the right time. At the end of May, the Twins were 24-28 and Morneau was hitting .244 with 12 homers and 38 RBI.
From June to the end of the season, the Twins went 72-38. Morneau hit 22 homers with 92 RBI and hit .350.
Is it fair that Morneau gets more credit because he had such a slow start? Perhaps. But it’s not just a coincidence that the team’s success closely mirrored Morneau’s.
Jeter was consistently good. No one can deny it. But it was hard to match the team’s success to his. Is that fair? Probably not. Jeter had a great year. But don’t pretend he played beside bums while Morneau got to play with Mauer. The Yankees had the best offense in baseball, scoring 60 more runs than any other team. They also spent $347.8 billion.
It’s imminently easier to hit in the Yankees lineup than in the Twins. That was another strike against Jeter.
I love your numbers… but we know the voters don’t use them. They go by what they see. Like when Giambi tears it up down the stretch… he gets the award… etc.
I stumbled across your blog and I really enjoy it. I appreciate your consistency with posting! There’s nothing worse than stumbling upon something you like only to find that nothing has been updated in 6 months! I’ve added you to my BlogRoll and will be sure to check back frequently. Keep up the good work.
Jen
I have to admit that I’m shocked it didn’t go to Jeter, given the borderline-fanatical obsession that sportswriters have had with him for the last 10 years. And the really hilarious thing is that this year, Jeter actually deserved it! As his league-leading VORP shows, his offensive output from the shortstop position was significantly more valuable than Morneau’s from first base. Combined with the fact that Jeter’s improved from an awful to a slightly-above-average defensive SS in the last few years, that should’ve won him the MVP. And given the fact that I’m a lifelong Yankee- and Jeter-hater, I can’t believe I just said that.
Yeah, never been a fan of VORP to compare people at different positions. SS is a significantly weaker position overall so you would expect Jeter’s VORP to be significantly higher.
He wasn’t even the MVP of his own team. That belongs to Mauer. His hitting and handling of the pitching staff is what got them going. Morneau just got on the train and started playing. He was mediocre for quite some time until he started producing this season.
I agree with you completely Jon.
CJ – What about the other two stats I provided? Mourneau isn’t ranked very high in either of them.
G’day!
As an Australia-based Twins fan, I found your blog on google and read a few of your other Twins posts.
I just added you to my Google News Reader. Keep up the good work. Look forward to reading more from you in the future.